bigzaphod:

Apple now has everything they need to disrupt the game console industry in a way that none of them see coming. I predict that we’ll see a new AppleTV update (and hardware) this fall along with a new app extension type for AirPlay. AirPlay will become about more than just streaming video to your AppleTV - instead that’ll simply be one of the things you can do with it. Apps (mostly games, I suspect) will be able to bundle an AirPlay extension inside - just like how apps can now bundle photo editing or sharing extensions as of iOS 8. The key difference is where the AirPlay extension app actually executes - instead of running on your device itself from within another host app, the AirPlay extension app will be automatically uploaded to whatever AppleTV you are currently AirPlaying with and will run directly on the AppleTV natively instead. This means no video streaming lag and minimal controller lag. Your iPhone would then turn into a generic game controller with onscreen controls or, if you have a physical shell controller attached to your iPhone, it activates that instead. The game controller inputs are then relayed to the AppleTV and thus to the AirPlay extension app using the new game controller forwarding feature.

Wow. Super fascinating theory.

In my experience, mirroring a game from my iPhone to an Apple TV has been lame because there's always a significant delay between what I do and what I see on the TV. If Apple can solve that problem, this could be a total game-changer for casual gamers. (For hardcore gamers, probably not so much. They'll always stick to their powerful gaming PCs and consoles.)

Depending on how techie you are, Apple's WWDC announcements last week left you with one of these impressions:

• “No new iPhone?! LAME.”
• “PATHETIC. Android has had all of that for years!”
• "HOLY. SHIT. MINDBLOWN."

If you're in the first group, you're most likely a consumer and not a developer. We have to remember, WWDC — short for World Wide Developer Conference — is a developer conference. For developers. Not consumers.

If you're in the second group, I got news for you: everyone copies. That's how technology moves forward. The best ideas are copied, remixed, refined, and evolve. As long as consumers win, why do we still need to argue about this?

If you're in the last group, you are either an iOS developer or an Apple enthusiast, and have a solid understanding/appreciation of how Apple does things.

As a developer and user experience designer, my job entails identifying specific user problems, researching/testing the right solutions, and delivering them to the right people at the right time. My passion lies in finding what makes new technology meaningful to real people, not just early adopting techies like me.

With that said, I'll try to break down all the developer stuff into real world examples for you.

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Buzz around the fabled "iWatch" has really hit fever-pitch levels since 9to5Mac's big scoop. Here's an overview of everything that we know, what we should expect, and what I think could happen.

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Microsoft's biggest apologist finally admits that Windows 8 is a total disaster.

If you look back over the decades at the many high-level complaints that have been leveled at Windows, one in particular sticks out: Unlike Mac OS, in particular, Windows has always attempted to satisfy every possible customer need, and as such it often provides multiple ways to accomplish the same thing. The result is a messy product, if you will, one that lacks the singular vision that is typically associated with the Mac and Apple's other products.

There's no reason to mince words: This criticism has always been valid. And if you were to simplify the issue down to a sound bite, you might make the following claims: Windows was designed by a committee. The Mac, by contrast, often feels like it was designed by a single person.

I still believe there's hope for Microsoft and I totally agree with what Thurrott proposes:

I always accepted the messy bits of Windows in the past because the system addressed such a large audience. But given the way things are going, Windows should evolve into a system that is laser targeted to the customers who will in fact continue using it regularly. That's mostly business users, but even when you look at the consumers who will use Windows, that usage is almost entirely productivity related. Windows should focus on that. On getting work done. On an audience of doers. Job one should be productivity.

Everyone likes to compare Apple or the Mac to BMW and, you know what? Fair enough, and if that's true then Windows is obviously GM, the overly-big messy GM of a decade ago. But Microsoft can't afford for Windows to be like GM anymore—just like GM couldn't, for whatever that's worth. Maybe Windows needs to be more like GMC, the part of GM that only makes trucks (and truck-based SUVs). After all, while many people choose to use a truck for basic transportation, they're really designed and optimized for work. You know, as should be Windows.

You can't please everybody, Microsoft. So stop trying. It's time to double down on the people who actually use your products, not some mythical group of consumers who will never stop using their simpler Android and iOS devices just because you wish they would.

Rene Ritchie just nails it with this piece.

Tristan Louis, Forbes:

Every step of the way, the company focused on reducing friction and providing increased value for the user when its competitors asked the users to do more work. The net result is that users have voluntarily provided all the components Apple now needs to enable a payment revolution. And we’re about to witness the rise of the iWallet, maybe not this year but pretty soon.

While all the doubters are busy proclaiming "Apple is doomed without Steve Jobs" and "Apple doesn't innovate," Apple's been quietly laying the foundation for a major mobile payments revolution.

It might not seem like it now but the Touch ID fingerprint scanner has potential to be a real game-changer (assuming it works reliably, unlike Siri). We live in a world of multiple devices, countless apps & social networks...remembering all those logins and passwords is a huge pain in the ass.

I'm reminded of this every time my parents have to call me from the Philippines because A) they forgot their password or got locked out of their accounts for too many failed login attempts.

Identity & Authentication are two things that are due for innovation, and Apple just made the first step towards improving that for mainstream consumers. It might not be a feature that'll make your jaw drop or impress you, but it'll be something you won't be able to live without once you've had it.

The last time I shared my predictions before an Apple event, it was mostly wildcard predictions that were dead wrong, LOL. Just for kicks, here are my Apple predictions for tomorrow (September 10th).

Lower-Cost iPhone 5C - 99% Confidence

Apple has its eyes on the China market. Although Apple is a premium brand that charges a premium on all their products…China's budget-conscious market is far too important to ignore. The 5C will be plastic, come in probably 5 colors, and for the most part be what the iPhone 5 is today.

Note: This will be lower-cost but not low-cost. I say it'll start at $50 with a two-year contract.

Goodbye iPhone 5 - 50%

This is the hardest to predict. If they keep it, should the 5C be priced higher or lower than the 5? What features would separate the 5 from the 5C? Your guess is as good as mine.

Goodbye iPhone 4S - 75%

Based on the blogosphere, it's a toss-up on whether the 4S, the 5, or both will be discontinued. I think Apple needs to get everyone on the new Lightning plug and the 4-inch Retina screen as soon as possible.

Next-Gen iPhone with Fingerprint Scanner - 99%

If this works reliably (unlike Siri), this has potential to be a real game-changer. 100% chance Apple will keep it simple for the first year and use it strictly for unlocking the lock screen. 60% chance it will be used for iCloud stuff this year.

Within two years, 60% chance Apple will get into mobile payments.

(Limited) Offline Siri Access - 85%

In iOS 7, Siri can be used to do simple settings like "disable WiFi" and "turn on Bluetooth". Simple Siri commands like that really shouldn't require an internet connection.

Wishlist: Siri should learn your most common commands (for me, that'd be "call Mom") and execute them instantly, without an internet connection.

32, 64, 128GB Models - 70%

16GB gives a terrible user experience these days, especially because popular apps like Instagram and Vine quickly eat up space. It's time to double the memory.

Gold iPhone - 90%

Not gold gold but champagne gold. Apparently gold is the best-selling aftermarket casing for iPhones, globally. It'll probably sell well internationally.

Graphite iPhone - 70%

Some recent leaks show a new graphite-gray casing for the new iPhone.

"iPhone 6" instead "5S" - 40%

Apple needs to drop the "S" moniker because it implies the new iPhone is only a "half-upgrade." Otherwise, Samsung will continue to (effectively) use their ridiculous advertising budget to tarnish the iPhone brand.

iPhone Launch Day on Sept 20th - 98%

AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, and Apple all blocking out vacation days for employees the weekend of the 20th. Can't read the tea leaves any clearer than that.

Also, Apple typically launches the new iPhone ten days after the unveiling.

iPhone Game Controllers - 99%

Games for the iPhone will support a new standardized game controller. Tie this in with AirPlay + Apple TV, and you got yourself a mini game console for the living room.

Apple TV software update - 60%

The rumor mill is buzzing that something is coming to the Apple TV but no one is sure what. Whatever it is, if it's not unveiled tomorrow, it'll be unveiled next month.

Larger Screen iPhone - 0% this year (but 60% next year)

A few new behind-the-scenes things in iOS 7 totally convince me that larger iPhone is in the cards. Apparently large-screen phones sell really, really well overseas.

iWatch - 0% this year (but 90% next year)

So many tea leaves to read:

1. Apple has been stockpiling on medical sensing technology for a reason. 2) Apple hired the fitness guru behind the Nike FuelBand. 3) Tim Cook has publicly said "I think the wrist is interesting" while sporting a Nike FuelBand. (Tim Cook is also on the board of directors at Nike.)

That's all for now. We'll see what happens tomorrow!

This is absolutely amazing to hear, almost 30 years later.

Highlights, courtesy of LifeLibertyTech:

• He mentions that computers are so fast they are like magic. I don’t think it is a coincidence that he called the iPad “magical”.
• He states that in a few years people will be spending more time interacting with personal computers than with cars. It seems so obvious now, but hardly a given back then.
• He equates society’s level of technology familiarity to being on a “first date” with personal computers. He recognized that technology would continue to evolve in the near future as would people’s comfort level with it. In hindsight, once it became dominant the PC industry stood relatively still while Jobs was busy planning “the next big thing”.
• He confidently talks about the personal computer being a new medium of communication. Again, this is before networking was commonplace or there was any inkling of the Internet going mainstream. Yet he specifically talks about early e-mail systems and how it is re-shaping communication. He matter-of-factly states that when we have portable computers with radio links, people could be walking around anywhere and pick up their e-mail. Again, this is 1983, at least 20 years before the era of mobile computing.
• He mentions an experiment done by MIT that sounds very much like a Google Street View application.
  He discusses early networking and the mess of different protocols that existed at the time. He predicts that we were about 5 years away from “solving” networking in the office and 10-15 years from solving networking in the home. I’d say he was pretty much dead-on.
• He says Apple’s strategy is to “put an incredibly great computer in a book that you can carry around with you that you can learn how to use in 20 minutes”. Does that sound like anything we are familiar with today? And they wanted to do it with a “radio link” so that people wouldn’t need to hook it up to anything to communicate with “larger databases” and other computers. Hmmm ….
• He compares the nascent software development industry to the record industry. He says that most people didn’t necessarily know what computer they wanted to buy. In contrast, when walking into a record store they definitely knew what music they liked. This was because they got free samples of songs by listening to the radio. He thought that the software industry needed something like a radio station so that people could sample software before they buy it. He believed that software distribution through traditional brick-and-mortar was archaic since software is digital and can be transferred electronically through phone lines. He foresees paying for software in an automated fashion over the phone lines with credit cards. I don’t know about you, but I think this sounds incredibly similar to the concept of the Apple App Store. Plus his comparison to the music industry just might be foreshadowing the iTunes store. You need to listen to the speech to hear the entirety of this passage for yourself.
• Right at the end of the Q&A session, a question is asked about voice recognition, which he believed was the better part of a decade away from reality. Given the context of Siri today, it is interesting to hear him talk about the difficultly of recognizing language vs voice because language is contextually driven. He says, “This stuff is hard”.

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